European road freight rates rose sharply in the second quarter of 2026. The amount of freight moving between Europe's biggest economies went the other way. For anyone selling freight in Europe, that gap is the story of the year.
Rates are up because costs are up
The quarterly benchmark from Upply, Ti and the International Road Transport Union (IRU) put the European contract rate index at 148 points in the second quarter (Q2) of 2026. That is 7.9 points up on the quarter and 15.2 points up on the year. The spot index rose faster, 14.6 points in a single quarter, to 146.8.
The benchmark's own reading is that fuel costs are being passed on. Diesel across the EU averaged €1.94 a litre in Q2, 27% more than a year earlier. It peaked at €2.19 in April and was €1.76 by late June.
The freight itself is shrinking
Road trade between the major EU economies fell 1.6% year on year in Q2. In the first quarter (Q1) it had fallen 8%.
Poland shows the shape of it. Polish road freight grew 8.8% in 2025 to 2,026.4 million tonnes, but the growth was at home. Domestic tonnes rose 11.0%. International tonnes fell 3.4%.
Higher rates on less freight is not a boom. It is a smaller pie, more expensive to deliver.
Not everyone is getting through it
Germany is where the pressure shows. In 2025 transport and storage recorded 133 insolvencies for every 10,000 companies, against 69 across the whole economy. In the first half of 2026 (H1) it had the highest insolvency rate of any sector, at 71.6 per 10,000.
It is not uniform. In the Netherlands, transport and storage bankruptcies fell, from 16.8 per 100,000 businesses in August 2025 to 11.8 in August 2026.
Underneath all of it sits the labour problem. The IRU puts unfilled driver positions at 13%, around 502,000 jobs.
What is already dated
Some costs are coming whatever happens to demand.
- Shipping carbon. From 2026, emissions on voyages between EU ports are covered in full by the EU carbon market, and half of emissions on voyages in or out. Maersk's surcharge from 1 October is priced on an average carbon allowance of €78.97.
- Road carbon. The separate carbon price on road fuel, the EU Emissions Trading System 2 (ETS2), now starts in 2028, a year later than first planned.
- Low-value parcels. Since 1 July 2026 the EU charges a temporary €3 customs duty per item on cheap e-commerce imports, due to run to July 2028. Almost 5.9 billion low-value items entered the EU in 2025.
- The Red Sea. Hapag-Lloyd began moving services back to the Red Sea in September 2026, with more to follow.
- UK to EU. The UK-EU agreement on food and plant checks is intended to take effect in mid-2027.
The numbers in one place
| Measure | Figure | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Contract rate index | 148 points, +15.2 on the year | Q2 2026 |
| Spot rate index | 146.8 points, +14.6 on the quarter | Q2 2026 |
| Road trade between major EU economies | -1.6% on the year | Q2 2026 |
| EU diesel average | €1.94 a litre, +27% on the year | Q2 2026 |
| German transport and storage insolvencies | 71.6 per 10,000 companies, highest of any sector | H1 2026 |
| Unfilled driver positions | 13%, around 502,000 | 2025 |
Sources: Upply, Ti and IRU European Road Freight Rate Benchmark; Destatis; CBS; GUS via Portal TSL; European Commission; Maersk; Hapag-Lloyd; GOV.UK.
What this means for freight forwarding sales in Europe
When rates rise with volume and margins, a forwarder can grow by standing still. When rates rise because costs rise and volume falls, the only growth is freight that moves from someone else.
That freight does move. A shipper whose carrier has failed needs a new one. A shipper whose rates went up this year will listen to a second quote. A shipper rerouting through the Red Sea again is reviewing who handles what. Each of those is a conversation somebody has first.
2026 is a market-share year in European road freight. The forwarders and hauliers who grow will be the ones already talking to the shippers who are about to move.
Blackridge finds those shippers and puts the conversation in your inbox, across the UK, Ireland and Europe, and for logistics and nobody else. Book a 30-minute call.